01
Forecasts for companies and assets
Estimate the probability that a company or asset reaches a defined outcome, with scenarios for what could improve or weaken the odds.
Investment funds · companies
Forecasting · Analysis · Decision modelling
Make the uncertainty explicit.
Independent forecasting and decision analysis for investment funds, family offices, companies and boards — from the probability of a company reaching a target to the risks around a transaction or strategic decision.
01 · Start with the situation
You are probably here because of one of these.
01
A decision is coming, and the arguments for it all sound equally good.
02
Someone has given you a number, and you cannot tell whether it is a judgement or a guess.
03
The risk everyone is discussing is not the one that is actually keeping you up.
04
A board needs to be told why this call, and ‘we thought it through’ will not survive the question.
In all four, the useful move is the same. State what would have to be true, put a number on it, write down what would change it, and return on the date. More analysis is not the first step; a question that can resolve is.
02 · How this works
Nothing here is claimed after the fact.
The process preserves what was known, what could not be checked and which conditions would settle the question, so the reasoning can be challenged before the outcome and assessed afterwards.
01 · resolution first
Question
A decision becomes a question that can resolve only one way, with the conditions that resolve it written down before the work starts.
02 · known at the time
Evidence
What was known at the time of the estimate is recorded with it, including what could not be checked.
03 · dated estimate
Forecast
A probability, the factors that move it, and the evidence that would change it. Dated, and not edited afterwards.
04 · scored outcome
Outcome
On the date, the question resolves against its stated conditions and the estimate is scored — whether it was right or wrong.
03 · Ways to work together
A decision rarely depends on the company alone.
Business fundamentals are read alongside markets, macroeconomics, politics and regulation. External conditions can turn an attractive deal into a fragile one — or reveal an opportunity the market has missed.
02
Business and transaction analysis
Build a view of how a business works across product, technology, market, economics and execution, then model the scenarios around an investment, acquisition or strategic move.
Funds · investment firms · family offices
03
Decision-making models
Translate uncertain inputs into a practical model for comparing options, downside, timing and the conditions that should change a decision.
Investment teams · leadership teams
04
Bespoke research for capital decisions
Assess situations the market does not cover: a specific company, deal or operating decision, the outside forces that could shape it, and where capital is most exposed.
Boards · investors · operators
04 · Boundaries
What this is not.
Not signals, not alpha, and not a view on what to buy. This is not a claim to forecast better than the market or better than a model, and not a subscription to future predictions. What is on offer is a question framed so that it can resolve, an estimate written down before it does, and reasoning left visible enough to argue with.
05 · Andrei Korchak
Engineering judgement, applied to investment decisions.
Andrei has written software since 2005 and led engineering teams since 2015. As a Partner at Notable Investors, he supports due diligence, assesses technology risk and helps build investment models across private equity and venture capital. Through Chaos Condensate, he takes on selected independent forecasting and decision-analysis engagements.
06 · About
One practice, several disciplines.
Chaos Condensate works at the intersection of technology, open-source intelligence, probabilistic forecasting, systems thinking and investment decision-making. The point of combining them is not breadth for its own sake; it is to notice when a decision depends on assumptions imported from another field.
In practice that means game theory and models of conflict, economic cycles, technology-adoption dynamics, historical analogy and political dynamics, applied to a specific decision rather than surveyed.
Chaos Condensate is an independent practice operated by Andrei Korchak, a UK-registered sole trader.
07 · Contact
Bring a question with a decision behind it.
Write with the decision you are facing, its horizon, and what evidence would change your mind. If the question is a fit, the reply will say what can be tested and where the limits are.